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Summary.
The conventional way to test ideas — promoted by the lean startup and agile approaches to innovation — often falls short when the ecosystem in question is complex. A study of five entrepreneurial ventures over six years found that the winning firms turned conventional wisdom on its head: They avoided prototypes early. Instead, they searched more broadly and paradoxically learned more about the ecosystem. Then, when they had a clear idea of who their alpha customers were, they committed to building complete, customized products. And if it became clear that these customers aren’t viable after all, they walked away from them and repurposed their initial investments to develop new products for new customers.As the world has grown more complex, interconnected, and awash in data, firms are embedded in increasingly complex digital ecosystems. This new world opens new possibilities and new ways to create value. But it also means that turning ideas into reality — and even understanding what might be possible — requires working with a larger set of players and navigating a more complex landscape of interdependencies.